The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session, fluctuating and pulling back. As the year-end approaches, traders' purchase willingness declines. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 26, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly higher in the night session, then fluctuated and pulled back, consolidating around 294,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 294,710 yuan/mt, down 0.23% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Overnight market—US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time since late October, Nvidia closed down 2.5%, and is set to compete with Apple and Google near the $4 trillion market cap mark in a "battle for the top market cap spot"; international crude oil once fell 3%. (2) US Fed—① Milan: The economy needs significant interest rate cuts; the rise in unemployment is due to overly tight monetary policy. ② Besant revealed that it is highly likely Trump will announce the new chair candidate before Christmas. Reports suggest Hassett stands out among the five candidates, while other reports indicate there is no clear frontrunner yet. (3) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is 84.9%, and the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 15.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by the Fed by next January is 66.4%, maintaining rates unchanged is 11.1%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 22.6%.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major producing regions like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Due to sluggish demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have decreased significantly. Downstream purchasing remains cautious, and high prices are significantly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although AI computing power improvements and growth in PV installations are driving some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot market: Overall trading in the spot market was sluggish. Yesterday morning, due to price increases, some miners priced orders, and smelters' willingness to sell increased. However, approaching year-end, most traders' purchase willingness is low, coupled with prolonged sluggishness in the spot market, making it difficult for inventory to be cleared. Most traders reported that yesterday's transactions were only around 10 mt.

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